[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":173},["ShallowReactive",2],{"insight-food-security":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"author":6,"body":7,"description":152,"draft":153,"extension":154,"eyebrow":155,"meta":156,"navigation":157,"path":158,"publishedAt":159,"readingTime":160,"related":161,"reviewedAt":163,"seo":164,"stem":165,"tags":166,"type":171,"__hash__":172},"insights\u002Finsights\u002Ffood-security.md","The next food shock will start in the grain bin. It will end on the protein shelf.","Luke Ferguson",{"type":8,"value":9,"toc":145},"minimark",[10,19,22,25,30,33,36,40,43,50,56,62,120,124,131,140],[11,12,13,14,18],"p",{},"JPMorgan’s global economics team has just put a date on the next food crisis. In a note titled ",[15,16,17],"em",{},"Food\nSecurity Is National Security: A Compounding Storm",", senior economist Nora Szentivanyi argues the\nshocks that have hit food systems since COVID have not washed through; they have compounded, and the\npressure now runs into the first half of 2027. Global food inflation, on her numbers, roughly\ndoubles from around 2.8% in the first half of this year to about 5% in the first half of next. Her\nphrase for it: this is not a short-lived shock.",[11,20,21],{},"The drivers are what JPMorgan calls the Five Ws: war, weather, warehousing, water and waste.\nDisruption around the Strait of Hormuz has hit fertiliser flows. A potentially historic El Niño is\nbuilding, and crop effects lag the ocean peak by six to twelve months, so the worst of the yield\ndamage is still ahead. The FAO food price index hit a three-year high in July. China has been\nquietly stockpiling food and fertiliser; the West has strategic oil reserves but no meaningful\nfertiliser buffer.",[11,23,24],{},"Most of the commentary around this note is about grains, rice, sugar and cocoa. That is where the\nfirst leg of a food shock always shows up. But it is not where it ends.",[26,27,29],"h2",{"id":28},"grain-today-protein-tomorrow","Grain today, protein tomorrow",[11,31,32],{},"Feed grain is the largest input into animal protein. When grain and fertiliser prices move, meat\nprices follow with a lag (typically a season or two) because herds and flocks cannot be rebuilt or\nliquidated on a spot basis. The market is currently pricing the crop leg. The protein leg is still\nin front of us.",[11,34,35],{},"For a lamb finishing platform, that has two faces. The demand face is straightforward: red meat\nbecomes more valuable in a food-inflationary world, and Australian lamb sells into exactly the\nmarkets JPMorgan flags as most exposed: South and Southeast Asia and the Middle East. The cost face\nis real too, and I would rather name it here than have an analyst raise it in a due diligence\nsession. We buy grain. We buy fertiliser. A platform that ignores that is not being straight with\nits investors.",[26,37,39],{"id":38},"how-the-opportunities-fund-is-built-for-this","How the Opportunities Fund is built for this",[11,41,42],{},"Three structural features matter here, and none of them are new; they are the reasons the platform\nwas designed the way it was.",[11,44,45,49],{},[46,47,48],"strong",{},"We own the water."," Of JPMorgan’s Five Ws, water is the one that cannot be shipped in or\nsubstituted. Across ten integrated NSW properties covering some 4,890 hectares of high-productivity\nirrigated country, the platform holds water licences totalling 6,800 megalitres on full allocation,\nincluding three-sided Lachlan River frontage at its flagship asset. That water grows forage and\nfinishes lambs on-farm regardless of what a super El Niño does to dryland pasture across the eastern\nstates. In a drought year, that is the difference between a controlled feed cost and a spot-market\nscramble.",[11,51,52,55],{},[46,53,54],{},"Sell price is locked at procurement."," Every lamb is bought under contract with its exit price\nlocked to a major processor at procurement. We are not a bet on where the lamb price goes; we are a\nmargin operator that gets paid the spread between purchase weight and finished weight. Higher\nprotein prices are a tailwind, but the fund does not need them to perform, and it does not suffer\nwhen they retrace.",[11,57,58,61],{},[46,59,60],{},"Short cycle, high turnover."," Lambs are on-farm for 80 to 100 day weight-gain cycles. Feed cost\nassumptions get re-struck with every intake, so an input shock is a repricing event across a few\ncycles rather than a multi-year exposure.",[63,64,65,76],"table",{},[66,67,68],"thead",{},[69,70,71,74],"tr",{},[72,73],"th",{},[72,75],{},[77,78,79,90,100,110],"tbody",{},[69,80,81,87],{},[82,83,84],"td",{},[46,85,86],{},"10",[82,88,89],{},"Integrated NSW properties",[69,91,92,97],{},[82,93,94],{},[46,95,96],{},"4,890 ha",[82,98,99],{},"High-productivity irrigated country",[69,101,102,107],{},[82,103,104],{},[46,105,106],{},"6,800 ML",[82,108,109],{},"Water licences on full allocation",[69,111,112,117],{},[82,113,114],{},[46,115,116],{},"80–100",[82,118,119],{},"Day weight-gain cycles",[26,121,123],{"id":122},"the-bigger-frame","The bigger frame",[11,125,126,127,130],{},"JPMorgan titled its note ",[15,128,129],{},"Food Security Is National Security",". Australia is one of a handful of net\nprotein exporters sitting next to the most food-insecure region on earth. That is a strategic\nposition, not a marketing line, and it is exactly the position that superannuation and sovereign\ncapital are now trying to access. Institutional allocators have historically reached food security\nexposure through farmland, an inflation hedge that carries land price risk and low yield. A\nvertically integrated protein operator with owned water and forward-priced processor offtake offers\na different profile: quarterly cash distributions, short duration, and a direct line to the demand\nshift JPMorgan is describing without adding to listed-market or residential-property exposure.",[132,133,134,137],"blockquote",{},[11,135,136],{},"“The grocery aisle is where the next inflation shock will be felt. The protein shelf is where it\nwill be priced. We think the platform is on the right side of that.”",[11,138,139],{},"— Luke Ferguson, Chief Executive Officer",[132,141,142],{},[11,143,144],{},"The information contained in this article is general information only. Any advice is general\nadvice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation nor needs have been taken into\nconsideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those\nobjectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. For wholesale investors\nonly. Ferguson Hyams Investment Management Pty Ltd, ABN 50 611 059 940, AFSL 490023.",{"title":146,"searchDepth":147,"depth":147,"links":148},"",2,[149,150,151],{"id":28,"depth":147,"text":29},{"id":38,"depth":147,"text":39},{"id":122,"depth":147,"text":123},"Why the protein leg of the coming food-inflation cycle is still in front of us — and how the platform is built for it.",false,"md","Market insight",{},true,"\u002Finsights\u002Ffood-security","2026-08-01","6 min read",[162],"\u002Finsights\u002Fbeyond-property",null,{"title":5,"description":152},"insights\u002Ffood-security",[167,168,169,170],"food security","protein","inflation","livestock","article","HM-jPDqA_lus28PZzVF6eFp2517HH3UnCpaLEGch138",1787831489445]